Son Preference at the Crossroads: A Comparison of Parity Progressions Across Birth Cohorts of Women in the Middle East and North Africa, Central Asia, and South Asia

Abstract

The paper studies cross-cohort changes of son preference effects upon parity progressions. In many countries of South Asia, Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa women are more likely to have another child when they do not have a living son. However, little is known about how son preference in parity progressions changes over time or across birth cohorts of women in those countries. Understanding these changes is crucial, as son preference in parity progressions contributes to higher fertility rates and reinforces gender inequalities within families. The paper concentrates on son preference in parity progressions across 1950-89 birth cohorts of women in eight countries of the studied regions: Bangladesh, Egypt, Jordan, Nepal, Türkiye, Pakistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The studied cohorts were in their reproductive period in the time of fertility decrease in the process of the First Demographic Transition. Particularly, rates of transition to the 3rd child were consistently decreasing from the older to the younger cohorts. Birth histories from World Fertility Surveys and Demographic and Health Surveys are analyzed using event history techniques. Results show that the importance of not having a son increased for progression to the 3rd child in more recent cohorts. Having no daughter was not associated with higher progression risk in any of the cohorts. Son preference therefore persists despite social changes that may be expected to balance the value of sons and daughters, such as urbanization and the growth of women's educational levels. In this aspect the studied countries are in sharp contrast with countries of Western and Northern Europe in the time of the First Demographic Transition, where son preference effects in parity progressions disappeared in the process of fertility decrease. Possible reasons for the stability of son preference in the countries under study are discussed. The cross-cohort dynamics of son preference in parity progressions are also compared to dynamics of sex-selective abortions in other countries of Asia known from earlier studies. Son preference in parity progressions appears to be generally more stable than sex-selective abortions, another manifestation of a higher value of sons, likely because the societal consequences of sex-selective abortions are more visible and widely recognized.

† This publication appears under special circumstances: the author recently passed away and was therefore unable to see his work through to its final publication. The inclusion of this article is thus posthumous, in recognition of Konstantin Kazenin’s valuable scientific contributions and his dedication to the field of population studies. We proceeded with the publication with the consent of the author’s family. By publishing this work, we wish to ensure that Konstantin’s insights remain accessible to the scientific community.

Since Konstantin was no longer able to respond to reviewers’ comments, we decided not to continue with the standard review process. Instead one referee decided whether the paper (as it was) is publishable. The published paper is the version Konstantin originally submitted (without any changes, not even language editing). This was only possible because the paper was already in a very good shape.

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