Comparing the Millennium and Pandemic Fertility Upticks

Contrasts of Geography, Age of Mother and Birth Order

Abstract

The millennium fertility uptick of 2000 was seen in 29 out of 39 low fertility countries; those countries saw an average increase in TFR of 0.04. The pandemic uptick of 2021 showed a similar average TFR uptick of 0.04 across 31 countries. Those superficial similarities conceal considerable differences. The aim of this paper is to explore those differences at both a regional level and by individual characteristics of age of mother and birth order. Across Asia the millennium uptick was particularly strong, with Taiwan and Singapore each seeing a leap of 8 percent in births over the previous year. The “auspicious” Year of the Dragon was a likely driver of this boost. However, having a “millennium baby” also appealed to women across much of Europe. The USA posted an increase of almost 100,000 births; yet most other Anglophone countries saw a fall. The regional differences in the pandemic uptick were also stark. Across the Nordic, Central European and Anglophone countries, the uptick was universal; an increase in births of over 3 percent in 2021 compared to 2020 was seen in 12 countries, which marked a sharp reversal from six consecutive years of declining births. The majority of countries in Southern and Eastern Europe also saw fertility rates rise, but these were generally modest. In Asia only Singapore experienced a slight bounce. In addition to the regional differences, the contrasts by parity and age of mother are illuminating. The millennium uptick was driven primarily by first births and was spread across all age groups. By contrast, in the pandemic uptick, it was second and higher order births, particularly to older mothers, which boosted the fertility rate, with first births concurrently being subdued. This observation gives policy-makers an indication of potential measures that can temporarily boost second and higher order births; yet any panacea for boosting first order births remains elusive: new millennia are rare and even Dragon years seem to be losing their attraction for childbearing in Asia.