Urban Exodus After COVID-19? Internal Migration Trends Pre- and Post-pandemic in Germany

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has been linked to increased net migration gains in suburban, peri-urban, and rural areas, at the expense of larger cities, contributing to suburbanization in many Western countries. Post-pandemic trends are less understood, but recent evidence indicates a return to pre-pandemic levels of internal migration intensity. This study examines internal migration trends in Germany in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, drawing on comprehensive flow data from 1991 to 2024. We analyze migration patterns across four urban-rural categories to assess the destinations of different age groups. The results indicate that net migration losses in the large cities continue to be driven by young adults. The pre-pandemic trend of sub- and counterurbanization persists during and after the pandemic, largely due to stable urban-to-rural migration by family movers. However, the second-most densely populated areas, “urban counties”, emerge as the winners in the internal migration trends across the urban-rural continuum.