Distinct Patterns of the Second Demographic Transition in Southern and Eastern Europe: 3D Plots Analysis

Abstract

This article provides a quantitative analysis of Second Demographic Transition (SDT) dynamics in Southern and Eastern European countries, addressing the need to quantify its pace and regional variations. We analyse transition trajectories by measuring Euclidean distances between country data points in two 3D scatter plots (based on fertility characteristics and socioeconomic population structure indicators) in ten-year intervals. Our study reveals comparable dynamics across both regions, with simultaneous or slightly delayed changes in key indicators. However, the timing of the transition varied substantially, occurring later in Eastern Europe. The findings confirm the SDT as a broadly universal process in Europe, shaped to a considerable degree by contrasting starting conditions and cultural contexts. Finally, the 3D scatter plot methodology proves to be an effective tool for illustrating and quantifying these complex transition trajectories.