The Impact of Refugee Shocks on Host Countries: A Scoping Review

Abstract

This article provides a systematic overview of the academic literature on the impact of ″refugee shocks“ – the sudden arrival of large numbers of refugees – on host countries. A scoping review was conducted using Google Scholar in September 2022 to describe the literature, drawing on 4,576 effects from 123 quantitative studies with no restrictions on countries, year of publication, type of publication, or the reported topics. This broad scope acknowledges that refugee shocks potentially affect many areas of life. A synthesis was carried out by aggregating and using regression models. We find an increase in studies on refugee shocks after 2015 and that the most commonly studied shocks took place in the Middle East and Europe. About two-thirds of the effects concern economic outcomes in the host country, while few cover health or environmental outcomes. Across topics, about half of the analyses indicate no statistically significant effect. Studies generally report normatively positive effects on education and generally negative effects on wages and employment in the host country. Refugee shocks tend to be associated with an increase in votes for the radical right. Future studies should address refugee shocks beyond the Western countries that are studied most closely and focus on understanding the dynamics of how different actors react to the arrival of refugees.